Nobody Won $413 Million on Tuesday. 255,122 Mega Millions Tickets Won Anyway
No one won Mega Millions on Oct. 20, yet 255,122 plays won prizes. What they won, how the built-in multiplier landed, and what tonight's $433M is worth.
Jackpot Dreaming Editorial9 min read
Figures come from the official Mega Millions data service, checked the morning of Fri., Oct. 23, 2026. Jackpot estimates can change before the drawing. Jackpot Dreaming is a personal project and isn't affiliated with Mega Millions, Powerball or any lottery.
What happened Tuesday night
The numbers were 13, 28, 33, 35 and 48, with Mega Ball 3. Nobody matched all six, so the $413 million jackpot ($170.3 million cash) rolled. Tonight's drawing is the 25th since a single ticket sold in Bradenton, Florida, won $803 million on July 28.
That's the headline everyone covers. The less glamorous part of the results is the winner count, and it's more interesting than it sounds. Mega Millions publishes how many plays won at each prize level and with which multiplier. Here's Tuesday:
| What matched | Winning plays | Prize range (2X to 10X) | Odds per play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 white balls + Mega Ball | 0 | Jackpot | 1 in 290,472,336 |
| 5 white balls | 0 | $2M to $10M | 1 in 12,629,232 |
| 4 + Mega Ball | 6 | $20,000 to $100,000 | 1 in 893,761 |
| 4 white balls | 152 | $1,000 to $5,000 | 1 in 38,859 |
| 3 + Mega Ball | 436 | $400 to $2,000 | 1 in 13,965 |
| 3 white balls | 9,371 | $20 to $100 | 1 in 607 |
| 2 + Mega Ball | 8,957 | $20 to $100 | 1 in 665 |
| 1 + Mega Ball | 69,057 | $14 to $70 | 1 in 86 |
| Mega Ball only | 167,143 | $10 to $50 | 1 in 35 |
| Total | 255,122 | 1 in 23 (any prize) |
Source: megamillions.com drawing data for Oct. 20, 2026, and the official prize chart. Prizes in California are pari-mutuel and differ from the fixed amounts shown.
So yes, a quarter of a million plays won something. Most of them won $10 to $70 on a $5 ticket. That's the honest picture of a "big" drawing night.
The multiplier did exactly what it says
Since April 2025, every Mega Millions play costs $5 and includes a multiplier that's randomly assigned when you buy it. It applies to every prize except the jackpot. The official odds are 1 in 2.13 for 2X, 1 in 3.2 for 3X, 1 in 8 for 4X, 1 in 16 for 5X and 1 in 32 for 10X. Put another way, out of every 32 plays, the design hands out 15 at 2X, 10 at 3X, 4 at 4X, 2 at 5X and 1 at 10X. That averages out to exactly 3X.
We added up Tuesday's winners by multiplier to see how close real life came.
| Multiplier | Winning plays | Share of winners | Designed share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2X | 119,703 | 46.92% | 46.88% |
| 3X | 79,521 | 31.17% | 31.25% |
| 4X | 31,839 | 12.48% | 12.50% |
| 5X | 15,994 | 6.27% | 6.25% |
| 10X | 8,065 | 3.16% | 3.13% |
Our arithmetic from the official winner counts.
That's about as tidy as random gets. With a quarter million winners, the luck evens out and you end up with the math the game was built on. Nobody should read anything into which multiplier "came up" for a drawing, because there isn't one. Each ticket carries its own.
There's a few small stories hiding in there. Three tickets matched four white balls with a 10X multiplier and won $5,000 each. And 5,253 plays matched only the Mega Ball on a 10X ticket, which turned a $5 play into $50. Not life changing, but probably a good night.
Where the money went
Applying the fixed prize amounts to every winner, Tuesday's non-jackpot prizes come to about $5,206,560. The six "4 + Mega Ball" winners split $200,000 between them (two at $20,000, one at $30,000, two at $40,000 and one at $50,000). The two smallest prize levels, "1 + Mega Ball" and "Mega Ball only," paid about $3.96 million, or 76% of the total.
The real figure is a little different, because California's prizes are pari-mutuel rather than fixed, so treat $5.2 million as a close estimate.
How many tickets were sold? Two estimates that agree
Mega Millions doesn't put national sales for each drawing in this data feed, but you can back into a rough number two ways.
From the winners. The official overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 23 (about 1 in 23.07 if you run the combinations). Divide 255,122 winners by that and you get roughly 5.9 million plays.
From the jackpot pool. Our site estimates plays from how much the cash jackpot grew, using the share of each ticket that goes to the jackpot pool under published state game rules. Tuesday's cash value grew from $162.1 million to $170.3 million, which works out to about 5.94 million plays.
Two different methods, both near 5.9 million plays, or around $29.5 million in sales. It's still an estimate. The cash figures are forecasts made before the drawing, and the rules-based share is our reading of state documents, not a number Mega Millions announces.
If that's about right, the non-jackpot winners took home about 88 cents for every $5 play sold. That's lower than the long-run average of the fixed prizes (about $1.12 per play) because nobody won the $2 million to $10 million second prize, which by itself is worth around 24 cents per play on average. Take that tier out and the expected figure is also about 88 cents. Tuesday was, in other words, very normal.
Was a jackpot win "due"?
No. With roughly 5.9 million plays and odds of 1 in 290,472,336 per play, there was only about a 2% chance that anyone would hit the jackpot Tuesday. A rollover was the expected result by a wide margin. Even the second prize was more likely to go unclaimed than not: about 0.47 winners expected, which means about a 5-in-8 chance of zero. Those are our calculations from the official odds and the estimated play count.
What tonight's $433 million is actually worth
Here's tonight's drawing by the numbers, run through the same tax and annuity logic as our calculator:
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Advertised jackpot (30-payment annuity) | $433 million |
| Cash option | $178.6 million (41.2% of the headline) |
| Federal withholding at payout (24%) | $42.9 million |
| Extra federal tax due at filing | about $23.2 million |
| Cash kept after federal tax, no state lottery tax | about $112.6 million |
| Cash kept, Arizona (2.5% state tax) | about $108.1 million |
| Cash kept, New York (state only, before NYC tax) | about $93.1 million |
| First annuity payment, before tax | about $6.5 million |
| 30th annuity payment, before tax | about $26.8 million |
Single filer, 2026 federal brackets, sole winner. Estimates, not tax advice. Your state and city can change these numbers a lot, which is what the calculator is for.
If you'd like the full state-by-state treatment, we did that for Powerball at $562 million, and the cash vs. annuity question in our lump sum vs. annuity guide.
What a $5 play is worth tonight
Using our expected-value model, a $5 Mega Millions play tonight is worth about $1.73 before tax. Roughly $1.12 of that comes from the fixed prizes (multiplier included) and about $0.61 from your slice of the cash jackpot, after a small haircut for the chance you'd have to share it. That's about 35 cents back per dollar. Tax only lowers it.
Our model also estimates around 6 million plays for tonight, based on the forecast cash growth. That suggests roughly a 2% chance that someone, somewhere, wins tonight. Treat that as a rough guide. Up to 70% of sales happen on drawing day, according to Mega Millions, so the real number won't be known until after the draw.
If you win one of the small prizes
All lottery winnings are taxable income, the IRS says, even the $10 ones. Most small prizes won't come with paperwork, though. For 2026 the IRS reporting threshold for a Form W-2G rose to $2,000, and federal withholding of 24% kicks in when a lottery prize minus the cost of the ticket is more than $5,000. So on Tuesday, only the six "4 + Mega Ball" winners were above the federal withholding line. State rules differ, and so do claim windows. Our claim deadline guide covers the timing side.
Tonight and the weekend
- Mega Millions: Friday, Oct. 23, 11 p.m. ET. Estimated $433 million, cash $178.6 million.
- Powerball: Saturday, Oct. 24. Estimated $674 million, cash $283.9 million, per powerball.com.
Together that's more than $1.1 billion in advertised jackpots on back-to-back nights. If you play, keep it to money you'd happily spend on a movie and popcorn.
FAQ
Did anyone win the Mega Millions jackpot on Oct. 20, 2026?
No. Nobody matched all six numbers (13, 28, 33, 35, 48, Mega Ball 3), so the jackpot rolled to an estimated $433 million for Friday, Oct. 23.
How many people won a Mega Millions prize on Oct. 20?
The official data shows 255,122 winning plays. Six matched four white balls plus the Mega Ball, 152 matched four white balls, and most of the rest won $10 to $70 on the two smallest tiers.
What are the Mega Millions multiplier odds?
Every $5 play gets a random multiplier: 2X (1 in 2.13), 3X (1 in 3.2), 4X (1 in 8), 5X (1 in 16) or 10X (1 in 32). It applies to all prizes except the jackpot and averages 3X.
What is the cash value of the $433 million Mega Millions jackpot?
An estimated $178.6 million, per megamillions.com on the morning of Oct. 23, 2026. After federal tax, a single winner in a state with no lottery tax would keep about $112.6 million by our calculator's estimate.
What are the chances someone wins the Mega Millions jackpot tonight?
Roughly 2%, by our estimate, assuming about 6 million plays at odds of 1 in 290,472,336 each. Your own odds with one play are still 1 in 290,472,336.
Do I pay taxes on a small Mega Millions prize?
Yes. The IRS treats all gambling winnings as taxable income. In 2026 a W-2G is generally required at $2,000 or more, and 24% federal withholding applies when the prize minus the ticket cost is over $5,000. State rules vary.
Sources
- Mega Millions official drawing data service, checked Oct. 23, 2026: Oct. 20 numbers 13, 28, 33, 35, 48, Mega Ball 3; no jackpot winner; jackpot $413 million (cash $170.3 million); next jackpot $433 million (cash $178.6 million) for Oct. 23; winner counts by prize tier and multiplier; next drawing Oct. 23 at 11 p.m. ET.
- Mega Millions How to Play: $5 per play with multiplier included; prize chart by multiplier; multiplier odds (2X 1 in 2.13, 3X 1 in 3.2, 4X 1 in 8, 5X 1 in 16, 10X 1 in 32); tier odds; jackpot odds 1 in 290,472,336; California pari-mutuel note.
- Mega Millions FAQs: up to 70% of sales on drawing day; annuity of 30 payments growing 5% a year.
- Mega Millions Jackpot History: July 28, 2026 jackpot of $803 million won in Florida.
- Powerball: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 estimated jackpot $674 million, cash value $283.9 million.
- IRS Instructions for Forms W-2G and 5754 (01/2026): $2,000 reporting threshold for 2026; 24% regular gambling withholding when lottery winnings minus the wager exceed $5,000.
- IRS Topic No. 419, Gambling Income and Losses: gambling winnings are taxable income.
- Jackpot Dreaming calculator and expected-value model: 2026 federal brackets, state rates, annuity schedule; multiplier frequencies of 15/10/4/2/1 out of 32 and the jackpot share of sales from published state game rules (California, Iowa and Virginia), used for the play-count, payout-per-play and ticket-value estimates.
